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Cautious optimism on Syria

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Cautious optimism on Syria

The Turkish ’Today Zaman’ columnist wrote, the Camp David summit, which brought together president Obama and his Arab allies in the Persian Gulf, ended with face-saving statements about mutual confidence, unequivocal iron-clad commitments and a strong determination to deter and confront any potential future aggression from Iran. Such words fell short of what the new Saudi King — noticeable for his absence from the summit — had expected. Actions always speak louder than words and the kind of action that Riyadh wanted was a new security architecture between Washington and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) in the form of a formal pact or defense agreement.

Another interesting dimension of the summit communiqué was the more modest tone on Syria. Gone are the days when Washington would loudly state that “Assad must go.” Such futile pronouncements, devoid of credibility, have now been replaced by more nuanced statements affirming that “Assad has no legitimacy and no role in Syria’s future.”

The irony is that despite inaction and passivity in Washington, there is noticeable movement on the ground in Syria, mainly thanks to a new working relationship between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. These three countries are now the key backers of the rebels in northern Syria. Their commitment to put their differences aside since the beginning of the Syrian revolution is becoming more consequential than any new development in Washington where the priorities of the Obama administration are still the same: The war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and nuclear diplomacy with Tehran.

It is no secret that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have had serious disagreements over who to support in the Syrian opposition in the last three years. Combined with Turkey’s own priorities in northern Syria, such quarrels between external patrons were debilitating for the Sunni Syrian opposition. Now that there is a new alliance between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey the dynamics are rapidly changing with major gains on the battlefield. Saudi, Qatari and Turkish cooperation is widely reported as the main reason why a group of Syrian rebels have now access to new weapons across the Turkish border.