Boston Globe -02-06-2015 – In the more assertive Saudi Arabia that’s emerging after the Arab Spring, war is no longer taboo as an instrument of policy and Washington’s approval isn’t required. Once known for cautious diplomacy, the oil-rich kingdom is turning more frequently to hard power.
The shift has been under way since unrest swept across the Arab world in 2011. It accelerated after the succession of King Salman in January, and the promotion of his son as defense chief. Since then, the Saudis have started an air war in Yemen against Shiite Muslim rebels they accuse of being tools of Iran. “We are witnessing the first real attempt to see whether Saudi Arabia can become the new military and political superpower of the Arab world,” says David Ottaway, a senior scholar at the Wilson Center in Washington. “A younger generation of impatient Saudi hawks is coming to power that is fed up with the failure of the kingdom to project its military and political influence.”
“The Saudis are exploiting a window of opportunity.”
The changes may not be entirely welcome to the US, the kingdom’s historic defender, just as recent American policies—especially the pursuit of a nuclear deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s chief regional rival—haven’t gone down well in the Gulf. Last month’s summit of Arab leaders with President Barack Obama at Camp David can’t disguise the fact that the long-time allies are drifting apart. King Salman didn’t attend, and his nephew and son— the prime movers of the new policy— headed the Saudi delegation.
The Saudi readiness to use force predates the change of kings. It was on display in Bahrain in the early months of the 2011 Arab revolts. As protests spread among Bahrain’s Shiite majority, Saudi Arabia sent troops in to crush the uprising, at the head of a coalition of Sunni Gulf monarchies. As in Yemen today, the Saudis alleged an Iranian role in the unrest. “Military intervention in Bahrain marked the beginning of the country’s muscular foreign policy, one that is independent of the US security umbrella,” says Fawaz Gerges, professor of Mideast politics at the London School of Economics. The Saudis have also played a role in Syria’s civil war, backing opposition groups and criticizing the US for being too soft on President Bashar al-Assad.
Pressure for a change of approach has been percolating through the opaque Saudi political system for some time. There’s a school of policy thinkers voicing support for the kingdom’s assertiveness. Two of its leaders are Mohammed bin Nawaf, the Saudi ambassador to the UK, and Nawaf Obaid, a visiting fellow at Harvard University. The ambassador wrote in a December 2013 editorial in the New York Times that Saudi Arabia will act to fulfil its perceived responsibilities in the region “with or without support of our Western partners.” Obaid had a similar message when the Saudi-led coalition started bombing Yemen. The intervention “should serve notice to the world that a major generational shift underway in the kingdom is sure to have far-reaching geopolitical ramifications,” he wrote in the Washington Post. The stance of both men “is defiant of American guidance,” says Chas Freeman, a former US ambassador to Riyadh. “It’s not just indifferent. It actually takes some pleasure in asserting independence.” There’s still a bedrock of commercial ties. Saudi Arabia ranked as America’s 10th-largest trade partner last year. The kingdom sells oil, while weapons are among its main purchases. Saudi military outlays jumped 17 per cent to exceed $80 billion last year, the biggest increase among major powers.
In charge of the army is Salman’s son Mohammed bin Salman, promoted this year from a low-profile job to become the kingdom’s third most-powerful man. He’s steering the Yemen war and attended the Camp David summit along with Muhammad bin Nayef, the king’s nephew and crown prince.
“For the first time, the kingdom is using its high-tech military capabilities to score points,” Freeman says. Whether they’re being “used in an effective way to advance policy and achieve political objectives is another question.”
