Iran exaggerates its oil export figures

Source: Bloomberg News
Iran is exaggerating its crude oil export figures and won’t be allowed to sell more than 1 million barrels a day over the next six months, U.S. officials involved in managing sanctions against the country said.
Iran says it shipped 1.51 million barrels a day in November, according to figures the nation submitted to the Riyadh-based Joint Organisations Data Initiative. The data, along with historical export figures, were published Jan. 20, the same day the U.S. and its allies temporarily eased some of the sanctions against the Persian Gulf state as part of a deal to curb its nuclear program.
The Obama administration said after the Nov. 24 accord was struck that Iran’s exports have been forced down to 1 million barrels a day, a reduction of more than half from 2.5 million a day before U.S. and European Union sanctions were imposed, and won’t be allowed to increase before a final nuclear deal is reached and all sanctions are lifted.
Iran may be inflating its data to try to set a higher baseline for subsequent negotiations and hoping its elevated numbers will help attract overseas investors, said the U.S. government officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized comment publicly. So far, Iran hasn’t challenged the 1 million barrel-a-day figure in meetings with U.S. negotiators, one of the U.S. officials said Jan. 22.
Some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, notably Iran and Venezuela, regularly report output numbers that exceed consensus estimates, according to the organization’s monthly reports. Export data submitted to JODI fall into the same category, according to analysts at BNP Paribas SA inLondon and IHS-PFC Energy in Washington.
 “Essentially, these are not numbers to believe whatsoever,” Jamie Webster, an analyst at IHS-PFC Energy, said of Iran’s submissions, adding that the country may be signaling to other OPEC members they should make way for its eventual return. “I suspect they don’t want to admit just how impacted they have been” by sanctions.