WASHINGTON -The framework nuclear deal sealed by world powers and Iran leaves major questions: Could Iran cheat? Possibly. Would the U.S or anyone else be able to respond in time? In theory, yes. Are they prepared to use military force? Questionable.
Would a final deal settle global fears about Iran’s intentions? Almost surely, NO.
As Obama said from the White House, “Their work, our work, is not yet done and success is not guaranteed.” And the parameters for a comprehensive accord by June 30 still include big holes for Washington and its negotiating partners.
The limits are vague on Iran’s research and development of advanced technology that could be used for producing nuclear weapons. Inspectors still might not be able to enter Iranian military sites where nuclear work previously took place. The Americans and Iranians already are bickering over how fast economic sanctions on Iran would be relaxed. And Obama’s assertion that the penalties could always be snapped back into force is undermined by the U.S. fact sheet describing a “dispute resolution process” enshrined in the agreement.
That standard would hold only for a decade, however. Over the following five years, it’s unclear how far Iran’s nuclear program would be kept from the bomb. And after the 15-year deal expires completely, there appear to be no constraints left to speak of – something congressional opponents and Iran’s regional rivals Israel and Saudi Arabia point to as evidence of a “bad deal.”
These matters and many more will now be weighed by a Congress that has watched impatiently over 18 months of negotiations. Republicans are almost universally opposed to Obama’s diplomatic effort; Democrats are divided. Together they’ll look at two possible pathways for congressional intervention.
The first would give lawmakers an up-or-down vote on a deal, something Obama may be amenable to despite past opposition. He stated his confidence Thursday in being able to demonstrate that an accord will advance U.S. and world security, and said his aides would engage Congress on how it can “play a constructive oversight role.”
The second potential congressional action is more risky: imposing new sanctions on Iran’s economy. That could end the diplomacy altogether by jeopardizing the basic formula for a final pact: removal of Western sanctions in exchange for stricter nuclear limits.
This week’s deal would compel Iran to cut in half the number of centrifuges it has spinning uranium. No bomb-making material could be fed into machines at a deeply buried underground facility that may be impervious to air attack. Advanced centrifuge models would be disconnected. A heavy water plant would not be allowed to produce weapons-grade plutonium. Inspections would increase.
And the long-term arc of Iran’s nuclear activity could well argue for continued diplomacy.