Top diplomats from Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey arrived in Vienna for talks on the war in Syria Friday, after Moscow thrust itself into the heart of the conflict with its bombing campaign in support of President Bashar al-Assad.
The envoys from Washington, Riyadh and Ankara – all of which back groups battling against Assad – will look to sound out Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after the embattled Syrian dictator made a surprise visit to Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin this week.
On September 30 Russia launched air strikes in Syria which have shifted the dynamics of the brutal four-and-a-half year war – allowing Assad’s battle-weary forces to go on the offensive and overshadowing a US-led coalition bombing the Islamic State (IS) group FRANCE 24 reported on Oct. 23, 2015.
The US and its regional allies have decried Russia’s strikes, insisting Moscow is not mainly targeting IS as it claims, but other groups battling the regime in Damascus, and that the Kremlin’s intervention will only prolong the fighting.
Washington and its regional allies have long insisted Assad has to go for there to be any chance of a political solution to fighting that has cost more than 250,000 lives, but Moscow says it must first help him defeat IS and other “terrorists” before talks can start on any reforms.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State John Kerry said in Berlin that while all sides agreed on the need to find a political solution and battle IS, only “one thing stands in the way… a person called Assad – Bashar al-Assad”.
But while all sides seem entrenched in their positions, analysts say some Assad opponents seem to be softening their line and conceding that he could remain in power temporarily, while Moscow does not seem wedded to the strongman long-term.
Another staunch Assad ally that will not be at the table in Vienna – due to objections mainly from Saudi Arabia – is Iran, but even officials in Tehran say they would not work to keep him in power “forever”.