Istanbul (AFP) – Turkey’s downing of a Russian war plane on the Syrian border risks inflicting significant damage on relations between Moscow and Ankara, even if they both have an interest in avoiding a permanent rupture.
Modern Turkey and Russia are the successor states of empires that fought over three centuries of war from the late 16th century for the Black Sea and Caucasus but in recent years forged a sometimes uneasy but pragmatic alliance.
Energy-poor Turkey relies on Russia for over half of its natural gas imports while Moscow has also started building Turkey’s first nuclear power station at Akkuyu in the south of the country.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States siad: “While Russia will not let this incident go unanswered, it will avoid any open aggression towards Turkey who is a NATO member.
“It is also unlikely that Russia will punish Turkey by cutting its gas,” he said, noting this would lead to questions about the reliability of Russian supply contracts.

A protester waves Turkey’s national flag as he and others shout slogans in front of the Russian embassy

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu moved swiftly Wednesday to emphasise they wanted friendly ties, and not an escalation, with Russia.
“We assume Russian reprisals… will not lead to further Turkish escalation and in due course the Turkish-Russian relationship will return to a degree of geopolitical equilibrium,” said Michael Harris, global head of research at private Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital.

– ’Golden era over’ –

Similarities are often noted between Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan
— two men both in their early sixties, in power for over a decade.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted Ankara was simply defending its border