Oil prices advanced higher in early Asian trade Monday as expectations for the U.K. to remain in the European Union continued to gather steam after the deadly attack on a pro-stay lawmaker last week.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in July CLN6, +1.52%  traded at $48.45 a barrel, up $0.47, or 1%, in the Globex electronic session. August Brent crude LCOQ6, +1.65%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.38, or 0.8%, to $49.55 a barrel.
The referendum to be held on June 23, known as “Brexit”, will determine the fate of the U.K.’s membership in the bloc. Opponents of the referendum said a departure could stir up an economic storm for the U.K. as well as the European Union. One potential repercussion is that other European countries could follow suit.
 “The Brexit has been the single largest disturbance in the oil markets lately. Prices have been rising steadily as polls show the remain camp now has the upper hand,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.
Last week’s killing of British lawmaker Jo Cox, a vocal proponent of Britain remaining in the European Union, has helped sway more votes in favor of remaining in the bloc, analysts said.
A survey by Survation published in the Mail on Sunday newspaper showed 45% backing for staying in the EU and 42% in favor of leaving. A poll by YouGov PLC put support for the pro-EU “Remain” side at 44% and “Leave” on 43%, with the rest undecided or not planning to vote.
The bullish outlook on Brexit has helped crude prices to defy negative catalysts such as the resumption of oil production in Canada and the latest increase in the number of active rigs digging for oil in the U.S.
“Investors shrugged off another rise in the U.S. rig count, instead buoyed by continued signs that current prices are still unlikely to incentivize U.S. producers to increase production,” said ANZ Research.
Oil prices have also been propelled by a weakening dollar. According to the WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, -0.54%  , the greenback was last down 0.5% at 85.54. As oil is linked to the dollar, traders with other currencies are better off when the dollar is down.
Apart from the Brexit vote, investors will been eyeing the weekly U.S. crude production and inventory data on Wednesday as well as China’s May final trade data on Tuesday. The preliminary data released earlier month showed China’s crude import fell 4.3% on-month in May to 7.6 million barrels a day.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for July RBN6, +0.91% — the benchmark gasoline contract — rose 97 points to $1.5150 a gallon, while July diesel traded at $1.4924, 107 points higher.
ICE gasoil for July changed hands at $443.25 a metric ton, up $10.25 from Friday’s settlement.

Source: Market Watch, 20 June 2016