USA Today, 15 Oct 2013 – An offer by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to take a year to resolve Iran’s nuclear standoff with world powers is probably too long a time period for the West and Israel, which believes Iran is stalling for time to complete its bomb.
Zarif’s written proposal was labeled “Closing an Unnecessary Crisis, and Opening a New Horizon,” and lays out three steps to settle the conflict “within a year,” according to AFP news service.
The proposal is now in the hands of a group of Western nations — the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia and Germany — who have imposed economic sanctions on Iran to get it to let inspectors verify its claim that the program is entirely peaceful.
“In the real world, we don’t have a year,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. “If Zarif wants to wait a year he’s going to face stronger U.S. sanctions and potentially an Israeli strike.”
Iran ended talks years ago while simultaneously building industrial-scale uranium enrichment facilities that go far beyond what is needed for medical or energy needs, according to the United States.
The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency has recently reported finding evidence that Iran has tested nuclear detonators for bombs. Though Iran is obligated to open up its facilities to review according to the by Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty it signed, its ruling mullahs have refused to allow U.N. inspectors access to its secret facilities.
Iran’s new president, Hasan Rouhani, pledged recently to seek a deal in return for the lifting of the sanctions, which have harmed Iran’s economy. But that deal may have to happen soon.
U.S. experts believe Iran will have enough equipment in place within a year to quickly “breakout” to produce enough highly enriched uranium for an atomic bomb without detection by international monitors. Israel believes it will have the capability in months, and says it will attack Iran if necessary to stop it from producing a weapon.
Albright says Iran’s negotiating strategy risks raising tensions as time passes without concluding a deal.
“U.S. negotiators would like important steps done right now, to delay that critical (breakout) capability,” Albright said. “The Iranian s probably want to keep their breakout times intact and to continue to lower them.”
Iranian leaders have said they intend to build 10 uranium enrichment sites around the country and U.S. weapons experts suspect secret sites are already under construction. Iran is not required by treaty to divulge the location of a nuclear facility in construction until it is almost ready to become operational, Albright said.
U.S. negotiators want Iran to give its inspectors access to known nuclear facilities, as required by the non-proliferation treaty, and declare its secret facilities. But the Iranians don’t want to divulge those sites because that would give a target list to the Israelis, Albright said.
“Transparency has to be managed carefully — Iran feels if it happens to early they fear their program will be destroyed,” he said. “On the other hand it has to go fast enough to convince the West they’re not building a nuclear weapons program.”
Israel’s Diplomatic-Security Cabinet released a statement Tuesday calling for continued pressure from sanctions on Iran until it dismantles enrichment facilities, removes its stockpiles of enriched uranium and proves its nuclear program is peaceful.
“Israel will embrace a genuine diplomatic solution which would bring about the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear weapons program,” in accordance with U.N. Security Council resolutions, the statement said.
Iran has threatened to annihilate Israel and is developing missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads that can reach the Middle East, Europe, and the United States. A nuclear Iran “would threaten world peace and stability,” it said.
“Iran claims that it supposedly has the ’right to enrich.’ But a country that regularly deceives the international community, that violates U.N. Security Council resolutions, that participates in the slaughter of civilians in Syria and that promotes terror worldwide, has no such right”.