The Guardian, 5 September 2017 – Donald Trump could refuse to certify the nuclear deal with Iran next month even if Iran is not found to be violating the terms of the agreement, the US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, has warned.
However, Haley said if Trump did not endorse the agreement by a congressional deadline in mid-October, “that does not mean the United States is withdrawing”.
“What happens next is significantly in Congress’s hands,” Haley said in a speech at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
She could not “pre-judge” what Trump would do, she said, but she argued strongly he would have “grounds” to withdraw his certification for the 2015 nuclear deal, under which Iran significantly reduced the scale of its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.
A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last week confirmed that Iran was keeping within the terms of the agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action (JCPOA).
However, Haley pointed out that under US legislation the president had to certify not only the absence of “technical violations” of the JCPOA but also to guarantee that the continued suspension of sanctions is “appropriate and proportionate” to steps taken by Iran, and that lifting sanctions is vital to US national security interests.
“We must consider the whole jigsaw puzzle, not just one of its pieces,” Haley said, adding that Iran’s missile development, past behavior and general trustworthiness should be taken into account.
 “I’m not making the case of decertify,” she said. “I’m saying should the president decide to decertify, he has grounds to stand on.”
She implied that Trump would not necessarily specify his reasons for withholding certification.
“Ambassador Haley’s speech was meant to alert the administration’s supporters that it will not certify Iranian compliance the next time it is required to do so by law, and that the ball will then be in Congress’s court on whether to impose new sanctions,” said Jim Phillips, senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the Heritage Foundation.
“If the president does not certify Iranian compliance, then the nuclear agreement will unravel, although not necessarily immediately. The White House may leave the door open to renegotiating the deal, although I believe Tehran is likely to reject renegotiating the issue.”
The ambassador, a former governor of South Carolina, has become the administration’s main voice on Iran, North Korea and other key foreign policy issues. The secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, has kept a low profile by comparison, amid persistent rumors he is unhappy in the role and could be replaced by Haley.
If Trump does not certify the deal by the 15 October deadline, he would – as in the case of the Daca legislation on child immigrants – put the ball in Congress’s court on Iran policy. Congress could re-apply nuclear-related sanctions or it could take no action and in effect knock the ball back to the president. He would have to decide whether to continue to waive the imposition of sanctions by mid-December.
Ilan Goldenberg, a former state department official, said that if Trump withheld certification of the nuclear deal it would be hard for him to continue to waive sanctions, as both are based on similar criteria.
 “If it goes back on his desk, it’s probably the end of the nuclear deal,” Goldenberg said.
The other five national signatories of the JCPOA – including the UK, France and Germany, key European allies – have underlined their commitment to it.
Haley claimed they were concerned about Iran’s behavior but acknowledged they did not want the US to withdraw.
However, she asked: “Are we going to take care of our allies and make sure they’re comfortable, or are we going to look after our national security interests?”