Al-Arabiya, 24 Oct 2011 – The U.N. nuclear watchdog is expected to publish intelligence soon pointing to military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear activities but stopping short of saying explicitly that Tehran is trying to build atom bombs, Western diplomats say.

Russian and Chinese reluctance may frustrate any Western bid to seize on next month’s report by the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to press for expanded United Nations sanctions on Iran, a major oil producer.

Moscow and Beijing signaled concern last week that the timing of the IAEA document could damage any chances for diplomacy to resolve the nuclear row.
In contrast, Western envoys believe the report – which they portray as incriminating for Iran – will pile further pressure on the country to curb its sensitive nuclear work and address international concerns about its aims.

“We are in favor of a strong report,” one Western official said.

“The IAEA has a lot of information that would allow the agency to come to clear findings on the issue of possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program.”

The different views indicate divisions among the six major powers involved in the search for a diplomatic solution to the long-running dispute over Iran’s nuclear program –the United States, Germany, France, Britain, China and Russia.

Western powers believe Iran is secretly trying to develop nuclear weapons, but Tehran denies this, saying it is enriching uranium only to power reactors for electricity generation.

Western diplomats say Russia and China may be unwilling to back any move at a mid-November meeting of the IAEA’s 35-nation governing board to refer Iran once again to the U.N. Security Council, based on the agency’s report.

“The follow-up to the next (IAEA) report is going to be critical, but it doesn’t necessarily need to involve a new U.N. Security Council resolution,” said analyst Peter Crail of the Washington-based Arms Control Association.

“If the details in the report do point to work on developing a nuclear warhead, the board members should adopt a resolution that at the very least condemns such activities and calls for Iran to cooperate with the IAEA investigation.”

Russia, which has commercial and other links with Iran, has proposed a step-by-step effort to defuse the nuclear standoff, but Western diplomats have given the plan a cool response.

European Union leaders warned Iran on Sunday it would face tougher sanctions if it failed to respond to concerns about its nuclear activities.

Two days earlier EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton – who handles contacts with Iran for the six powers – told Tehran that talks could resume soon if it was ready to “engage seriously in meaningful discussions.”

Replying to a letter from Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, Ashton called on Tehran to “demonstrate its willingness” to address international concerns, without pre-conditions, her spokeswoman told AFP.

The European Union’s chief diplomat also asked Iran to “engage seriously in meaningful discussions on concrete confidence-building steps, in order to allow for a new round of talks with Iran to be convened,” said the spokeswoman, Maja Kocijancic.