Los Angeles Times, Cairo/Tehran, 16 Jan 2012 – The deepening economic and diplomatic pressure against Iran is sharpening tensions between Tehran and oil-producing Arab states that have long relied on the West to counter Iran’s nuclear program and its regional ambitions.
Iran’s growing isolation has agitated sectarian mistrust in the Persian Gulf between Tehran’s Shiite Muslim-run government and Sunni-controlled states including Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. In a provocative move over the weekend, Iran warned Arab regimes not to join a possible Western-backed oil embargo to further weaken its economy.
‘If our southern neighbors collaborate with the adventurous states [the U.S. and Europe] by substituting their oil for Iran’s oil, these countries will be considered as accomplices in future events,’ Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran’s OPEC governor, said Sunday. Such a move would be regarded as an ‘unfriendly gesture,’ he said.
The comments came as Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited oil giant Saudi Arabia. Beijing and other Asian capitals have energy ties to Tehran but are being urged by Western nations to reduce their imports of Iranian oil amid international sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear program. The West says Iran is intent on developing a nuclear bomb; Tehran says its aim is to produce energy for civilian purposes.
Iran is also facing pressure from the European Union, whose members are expected to meet this month to decide whether to embargo Iranian oil products. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said recently that the EU has made ‘discreet contacts’ with unnamed states to increase oil production if Iranian exports were further squeezed.
Tehran has countered by threatening to close the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes. Such a blockade, which could lead to military conflict with the U.S., would hurt Iran but also disrupt Arab oil exporters and rattle financial markets.
‘Khatibi’s statement was rhetoric, but if Iran can’t sell its oil, then no other country in the Persian Gulf should be able to either,’ said Forouz Rajaeifar, a conservative political analyst in Tehran. ‘Our stability is their stability. We can’t allow other gulf states to threaten us. We need to come to an agreement with them to do what is good for all of us.’
Stepped-up sanctions and a protracted crisis in the gulf would almost certainly exacerbate Iran’s economic turmoil ahead of parliamentary elections in March. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has attempted to rally the nation against foreign sanctions, but that may fade amid harsh economic realities.
‘This is a very serious implication for the Iranian economy and the legitimacy of the Iranian regime,’ said Mustafa Alani, senior advisor and program director for security and terrorism studies at the Gulf Research Center in Geneva. ‘If there are no petrodollars, they can’t sustain the economy.
‘They’re panicking and they’re trying to find a way to deter the international community, the regional states, from participating in this new step,’ the oil embargo, Alani said.
Iran’s pointed words at its neighbors, many of which are U.S. allies, are the latest wrinkle in the region’s sectarian power plays. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have accused Iran of instigating uprisings by Shiite minorities in their countries. Arab states are also concerned about Iran’s widening influence in Shiite-dominated Iraq after the withdrawal of U.S. forces in December.
Gulf countries led by Qatar have condemned Iranian ally Syria for that government’s violent crackdown on protesters that has killed thousands in the last 10 months. Qatar orchestrated Syria’s suspension from the Arab League and has pushed for sanctions against it.
If Syrian President Bashar Assad steps down or is overthrown, Iran could lose the conduit for its military and financial ties to the militant groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Tehran appears more adamant, and preoccupied, these days with flexing its power closer to home.
‘Small countries in the Persian Gulf do not dare to join the West’s sanctions,’ said Mojtaba Bigdeli, an analyst in Tehran with close ties to the government. ‘Iran has no important rival in the region.’
But gulf states may be less susceptible to Iranian threats than in the past because of their bolstered counterintelligence services and cover from a sizable U.S. military presence, including the Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain.
‘They’ve been reacting to all of Iran’s moves in a very bold and aggressive manner,’ said Riad Kahwaji, head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. ‘They are not hesitating to threaten back and push back.’
Gulf countries have been building ‘their own defenses, their own strategic links with Western powers,’ he said. ‘They can now see the serious international pressure on Iran, which is something they always hoped to see in order to reduce Iran’s moves over the region.’