Riyadh, The Alriyadh Daily, 21 February 2018 – A recent scientific research conducted by the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies has said that the growing inequality among the people in Iran could pose real challenges for President Hassan Rouhani’s government. The research gave clear-cut evidence of what sparked the unexpected protests that rocked Iran last December.
According to the research, titled “The protests put spotlight on the weaknesses of the Iranian regime,” and conducted by co-researcher at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Mona Alami, the protests exposed the weaknesses of the Iranian regime, threatened by internal discord and continued social discontent due to high rates of unemployment and corruption.
The research has been reproduced in “Comments,” a periodical published electronically by the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Arabic and English.
The research pointed out that the December protests came as a surprise to all because Iran’s economy had rebounded last year, according to European economic reports.  At the same time, the rate of unemployment remained high, at about 16%, and in some cities that saw strong protests, it had reached as high as 60%. The research revealed that there were strong feelings among the people that Rouhani had not fulfilled his promises to assist the victims of the recent earthquake. The calamity had left tens of thousands homeless in cities such as Isfahan, Lauristan and Hamdan. These cities were the main centers of the recent protests.
The study pointed out that the protests erupted in some urban areas, except Tehran. This made it clear that there were glaring disparities in living standards between Tehran residents and the rest of the Iranian cities, which saw the maximum protests.
Rouhani’s policies benefitted companies in Tehran and the middle class living in the capital. This disparity in wealth between Tehran and the rest of the Iranian cities was a strong trigger for the protests, unlike the 2009 unrest when the capital was the epicenter. The recent protests were mainly in smaller cities.
The research also revealed that poverty levels had steadily increased in both urban and rural areas since 2012, posing a strong threat to Rouhani. It also pointed out that slogans raised by protesters during the December uprising, reflected the anger of the Iranian citizens because the Rouhani government squandered the people’s money on military adventures in the countries of the region, including Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. The amount spent on supporting paramilitary groups and radical organizations, was equivalent to about 10% of the country’s GDP in 2016.
The research also showed that though the current protests had waned, the waves of dissatisfaction remain. Depending on the regime’s response to the people’s concerns, protests could erupt anew. The trigger points include the continuing inequality among different ethnic, religious and regional groups, along with income disparity, and the low GDP per capita amidst a vast population. The country’s mountainous topography, changes in the political regime, and its total dependence on oil are other problem areas for the regime.