The Hill, 5 August 2015 – Republicans on Tuesday said they intend to move forward next month with a measure to disapprove of the Iran deal, which lifts sanctions on Tehran in exchange for concessions on its nuclear program.
The GOP looks primed for a victory in the House, but it is unclear whether they can win the 60 votes necessary in the Senate to overcome an expected Democratic filibuster.
In the House, the White House’s calculus grew more complicated on Tuesday as three key Jewish Democratic lawmakers said they would vote to kill the deal.
Reps. Nita Lowey (N.Y.), Ted Deutch (Fla.) and Steve Israel (N.Y.) — a former chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — all said they would oppose the deal despite the heavy pressure from President Obama.
“I’m going to vote against the Iran deal,” Israel, the highest-ranking Jewish House Democrat, told Newsday.  “I tried very had to get to yes. But at the end of the day, despite some positive elements in the deal, the totality compelled me to oppose it.
“I concluded that like everything else in the world the deal is not as bad as some say, but it’s just not good enough to get my support,” he added.
The objections from Israel and the other two House Democrats reflect unrest with the deal among Jewish Democrats in New York — and raises questions about whether incoming Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) will back it.
The consequences of his vote could be tremendous.
“Schumer I think brings six to 10 votes with him,” said one senior official with a pro-Israel organization involved with the fight. “If he votes for the deal, he provides cover for other on-the-fence senators.”
“Schumer, if he has made up his mind, isn’t telling anyone where he is,” a separate lobbyist working on the issue said. “I think he is going to take a few more weeks to either make up his mind or roll out whatever decision he has made.”
The White House’s urgent lobbying of congressional lawmakers appeared to be coming to a close this week, as the Senate looked ahead to a five-week August recess. The House has been out since last week.
When they return, lawmakers will move quickly to the Iran deal.
The House is expected to vote first on a resolution of disapproval of the agreement, which House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.) unveiled on Tuesday.
House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said in a statement: “If members determine this deal does not make our country safer, they will have an opportunity to vote for this resolution when we return in September.”
That House vote — which is sure to pass — will put pressure on the Senate to back the deal. If Democrats fail to filibuster the measure, President Obama will veto it.
That will set up a fight over whether Democrats can sustain his veto.
If Republicans vote in a bloc, they would need 13 Senate Democrats and 44 in the House to overturn the president’s veto.
Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) is another vote lawmakers will be watching closely. As the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Cardin has helped steer the Senate’s oversight of the deal while also occasionally criticizing the Obama administration’s game plan.
Watchers also speculated that Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Michael Bennett (D-Colo.), Chris Coon (D-Del.) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) would provide bellwethers going into the August recess.