Plans by Russia to pullout forces from Syria delivered a strong message to Bashar Assad, who recently took a major hardline position. Moscow announced an end of its military intervention in Syria as a success story from its own point of view, not Assad’s. This, and other important factors, have accelerated peace efforts in Geneva, posing Assad as the “persona non grata”, even for Russia.

Not In It For The Long Run

Undeniable is the fact that Russia, along with Iran’s proxies, helped relieve Assad of definite overthrow at the hands of Syrian opposition forces closing in fast. Russian President Vladimir Putin is now coercing Assad to actually engage his opposition. Following an interest overlap in the past few months, the Russians are reminding Assad they don’t share ultimate goals and that Moscow will not be in it for the long run.
With even senior Russian military brass taken off guard, Putin issued orders for the bulk of an estimated 3,000 to 6,000 boots on the ground to begin departing Syria. This has raised hopes for a political solution after the 5 year long lethal war. Russia dispatched its air force to Syria back in late September to shore up Assad’s disintegrating military. Despite claiming to fight Daesh (the Arabic acronym for the self-proclaimed Islamic State) along with other, as he called them “terrorists”, a high percentage of the Russian campaign pinpointed opposition groups backed by the West, pushing them out of areas crucially and strategically vital for Assad’s survival. Damascus sees this as a long run battle, starkly different from Moscow’s position.

Rising Differences Between Old Allies

Despite restoring momentum for Assad, Syrian forces – backed by the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran proxy groups – failed to regain areas around Idlib in the north or completely besiege the rebels in the strategic city of Aleppo. Peace talks resuming allowed Putin to time his troops’ withdrawal and claim the majority of Russia’s involvement will wind down in success, pose as a peacemaker while horrifically bombing civilian areas, and ease dangerously escalating tensions with NATO member Turkey and Sunni Gulf states vexed by Moscow’s military actions.
While a number of analysts doubt Russia will drop Assad anytime soon, this withdrawal does suggest the rise of dangerous rifts between Putin and Assad over the future. Assad’s top diplomat taking a hardline stance on his boss’ presidency being a “red line” annoyed Moscow, knowing it would disrupt the entire peace process with the opposition.

Iran Losing Big

From a military perspective, Russia’s withdrawal is a severe blow to Assad, already relying on Iran to dispatch Shiite militias to fight on his behalf. The decision by Moscow to maintain the Tartous naval base and Latakia air base is merely an attempt to save face for Putin back home. This withdrawal highlights major divides amongst Iran, Syria and Russia, proving yet again that Moscow mainly sought objectives outside of the Middle East, including Ukraine and an ease on Western sanctions. Left in the cold, however, is Iran as the initial caretaker of the Assad regime who rushed to its support early in the war, and now sees all the billions spent going down the drain.
Recent remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the Syrian people having to decide what form of state they seek sent a startling signal to Assad. The message is Russia, now in talks with the West about its own interest, is weighing to either scissor Assad’s wings to some extent, or gesturing it’s time for him to go.

By Keyvan Salami
Follow Keyvan Salami at @salamikeyvan