The Washington Times, October 26, 2008 (excerpts) – Iran’s nuclear program is the focus of disappointing United Nations diplomacy and reckless talk of U.S. and Israeli air strikes. It has also spurred joint plans by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates to build a nuclear reactor of their own. Unfortunately, the world cannot stop Iran from acquiring the capability to build nuclear weapons merely with promises of increased trade or sanctions that hurt carpet weavers but do not affect Iran’s oil exports.

If the world is serious about discouraging Israeli air strikes and Saudi reactors, it must use the two points of leverage it has with Iran: a short-term stick and a long-term restriction. Both involve oil.
First, Iran refines only 60 percent of the gasoline it uses. It imports the rest of its gasoline from India, France and nearby Arab countries. This gives the world a grip on Iran’s economy should strong action become necessary. It is vital that the United States win a commitment from the Russians, Chinese and Western Europeans not to build more gasoline refineries in Iran. A petrochemical plant, fine. A pipeline, fine. But not a refinery.
Second, Iran’s oil production of 4 million barrels a day is stagnant. Iran’s geologists can increase oil production only enough to offset the decline of aging fields. Iran’s 75 million people already use 37 percent of their nation’s petroleum, and they are doubling their oil consumption every decade. If the world can prevent Iran from increasing its oil production, Iran’s petroleum exports could fall to half the current level by 2020 and stop completely by 2030. By then, if not sooner, Iran’s deeply unpopular theocracy, starved of money, could collapse just as the Soviet Union did when its oil revenues plummeted in the 1980s.

We need to let the Iranian people know that it is not Iranian atomic development we fear, but dictatorial fanatics having atomic bombs. A nuclear-armed theocracy is a threat anywhere in the world if its leaders believe that death is inconsequential because Judgment Day is imminent.

As for diplomacy, it has been six years since Iranian dissidents first revealed the existence of Iran’s secret nuclear facilities, yet Iran continues to avoid serious negotiations on the subject.