Democratic lawmakers are holding back their support for President Obama’s controversial nuclear deal with Iran, knowing the political dynamic surrounding it could change dramatically in the coming months.
Political firestorms tend to erupt during the long, hot days of August, when lawmakers meet face-to-face with constituents in town-hall meetings that can quickly grow contentious.
Political advocacy groups know this and plan to spend tens of millions of dollars over the next two months to build a firestorm of opposition to the deal they believe preserves Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon.
“I want to first sit in my little chair in my house, take the agreement, the codicils, the annexes and read them and ponder them and study them. Then I intend to start talking to people and experts, but the first step is to do that,” said Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), a pivotal swing vote.
Twenty-eight Senate Democrats have not made clear their decisions, according to a whip list complied by The Hill.
“As someone who had a front-row seat in 2009 when I saw how quickly the Tea Party activists managed to turn debate on ObamaCare on its head, I’m very concerned about something similar happening this time around,” he added.
Citizens for a Nuclear Free Iran launched a multi-million-dollar nationwide campaign Friday to oppose the nuclear deal.
“We think Democrats should be concerned because the deal increases the chances of war, will spur a nuclear arms race and rewards an Iran with a horrific human rights record,” spokesman Patrick Dorton told The Hill.
Opponents will argue the deal does not achieve “anytime, anywhere” inspection, fails to specify to what extent Iran must disclose past work on nuclear weapons and allows it to continue developing intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The battle for influence will focus on a group of about 15 Senate Democrats whom Republicans need to reach the 67-vote threshold to override a veto of a disapproval resolution.
“How’s the verification going to work? How can we be assured that Iran sticks to what they’ve agreed to? How are the sanctions going to snap back into place if they don’t?” asked Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.).
Senior congressional aides say there are enough votes this month to sustain President Obama’s expected veto of a resolution overturning the deal, but warn the environment could change over the next two months.
“The fact that there’s a vote in September makes me worry. If the votes were held now, we’d be fine,” a Senate Democratic leadership aide told The Hill on Tuesday.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold its first hearing on the accord July 23, when Secretary of State John Kerry, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew are scheduled to testify.
Sen. Ben Cardin (Md.), the senior Democrat on the panel, expects it to hold at least three public hearings over the next three weeks before the recess.

The Hill, 19 July 2015