Reuters, Sep 12, 2008, Vienna (excerpts) – A U.N. watchdog inquiry into whether Iran covertly researched how to assemble an atom bomb appears to have stalled while Tehran slowly but steadily builds up a sensitive uranium-enrichment program, diplomats say.
They expect this to be reflected in an International Atomic Energy Agency report on Monday at a time of faltering pressure on Iran, with Russia and Western powers at loggerheads over Georgia and the Bush administration on the way out.
In May, the IAEA said Iran seemed to be withholding information needed to explain intelligence allegations that it had fused projects to process uranium, test high explosives and modify a missile cone in a way suitable for a nuclear warhead.
IAEA Director Mohamed ElBaradei called on Iran then for “full disclosure” — namely, going beyond flat denials without providing access to sites, documentation or relevant officials for interviews to substantiate their stance.
Follow-up talks were held in Vienna and Tehran over the summer, but appear to have hit a wall, said diplomats accredited to the IAEA, who asked for anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly on confidential matters.
“The word out is — no progress on clarifying possible military dimensions to the program,” said a European diplomat who, like others, cautioned that a complete picture would emerge only in the pending report by ElBaradei.
Two diplomats said Iran refused IAEA access in August to workshops possibly involved in redesigning missile cones.
“We are told the report will be negative,” said another diplomat. Others said Iran had cut cooperation with the IAEA to the minimum under its nuclear safeguards accord with the agency.
That means allowing routine, limited inspections of declared nuclear sites to go on, but not granting extra access Iran says would compromise its security and involve solely conventional military installations beyond the IAEA’s writ.
“They don’t want visits to national defense sites,” said a senior diplomat versed in Iran-IAEA dealings.
“It’s not just a simple tale of Iranian stonewalling. But there’s a stalemate. The veracity of the alleged (bomb)
Western powers could seek a resolution at the September 22-26 meeting of the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors demanding Iranian compliance, depending on how downbeat the report is, but such pressure would be largely symbolic.
Iran says it is enriching uranium not to yield atom bomb fuel, as Western powers suspect, but only to run nuclear power stations so it can export more of its oil and gas wealth.
But the Islamic Republic hid enrichment work until Iranian opposition exiles exposed it in 2002. IAEA investigations since then have been unable to verify the activity is wholly peaceful because of restricted access and a lack of Iranian transparency.