Le Monde, 7 Nov, 2012 (Translated from French) – This file sits on top of a stack of files pending on the desk of President Obama, a file that is top priority for the Pentagon, State Department and CIA; A very hot political file, a constant diplomatic dilemma and a strategic nightmare. It is labeled “dangerous” and “explosive” and it can be the source of a new war in the Middle East. The name of this file is Iran.
In this case, there are no assurances. Neither America’s friends, which have their own concerns, are cooperating with the US, nor its foes, which even on conditions of upholding their reputation, are not willing to give the slightest concession.
The US election campaign resulted in the toughening of Washington’s stances, and Barrack Obama defended Mitt Romney’s same approach. Both candidates agreed on one formula. The United States emphasizes that it will not allow the Iranian regime to acquire a nuclear bomb. Both Obama and Romney believe that in this scenario, the doors to a wave of proliferation that will turn the Middle East into a giant nuclear arsenal will be opened. They believe that Arab countries and Turkey will not allow the Islamic Republic to solely obtain a nuclear bomb. A Middle East with three or four nuclear powers? This prospect is neither acceptable to Washington nor for London and Paris.
In his second term, Barrack Obama will swear in on January 20th. Two days later, Israel will hold its early elections. A possible theory: Benyamin Netanyahu will once again be reelected. It is said that Netanyahu will choose Lieberman as his Defense Minister, since he is completely in favor of a unilateral attack against Iran. The Iranian regime, which denies it’s seeking a nuclear bomb, will be in the midst of elections at that time. Iran’s presidential election is due to be held in June. This election has currently turned into one of the most brutal battle fields between factions within the Islamic Republic. The dominant group, Ali Khamenei’s circle, intends to crush Ahmadinejad’s group, who cannot be reelected but seeks to bring to power one of his own men in this election.
The US President has repeatedly said that if sanctions are not able to force the Iranian regime to halt its program, the military option is on the table.
For 33 years, these two countries have denied each other. Since November 4, 1979, the day the US Embassy was taken hostage in Tehran, they have not had direct talks. The Americans have an idea of the kind of country Iran is. There are quite a lot of Iran experts in Washington. However, is the opposite also true? The leader of Iran has to date only traveled to three foreign countries, which are ideals for democracy: Iran, China (in 1989) and North Korea, which is his favored country.