The Wall Street Journal, 12 Nov 2011 – Iran’s reaction to new accusations that it is pursuing development of a nuclear weapon has been defiant, answering potential threats with harsh warnings of retaliation.
But behind the rhetoric, Iran’s regime, fractured by political infighting and with an economy weakened by international sanctions, has been presented with one of the most daunting challenges of its 32-year history.
Following the release on Tuesday of the United Nations nuclear agency’s report concluding Iran is pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, the U.S. and others have indicated they would seek to put more weight into two main pressure points on Iran: sanctions and the threat of a military strike.
Related The Obama Administration has drawn up plans to provide the United Arab Emirates with thousands of advanced ‘bunker-buster’ bombs in order to build a regional coalition to counter Iran. Julian Barnes reports from Washington.
U.S. Plans Bomb Sales in Gulf to Counter Iran Though those efforts have yet to force concessions, Tehran’s recent show of defiance has been read by some Iran experts as false bravado intended to keep the international community from taking harsher action. Iran has two options, analysts say: Push back and risk provoking a fatal blow, or concede to negotiations about its nuclear program and risk appearing weak; at a time when several other autocratic governments in the region have been toppled by popular uprisings.
For now, the closest Iran has come to concession was the Foreign Ministry representative’s statement Wednesday that Iran was ready to negotiate on the condition that it was treated on equal footing.
But the Islamic Republic Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and senior military commanders all pledged to sow mayhem if the U.S. or Israel attacked. Mr. Ahmadinejad said Iran won’t budge on its nuclear program.
Libya, the latest Arab nation to see a hard-line leadership toppled by popular revolt, serves as an important example for Iran’s leaders. Libya’s ousted leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi abandoned the country’s nuclear and chemical-weapons programs in 2003 in exchange for international investment, the reversal of sanctions, and praise from world leaders.
The lesson to the hard-liners in power in Iran, analysts say, is that Gadhafi lost Libya because he gave up his nuclear program, and with it a deterrent against foreign military intervention. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization backed the rebels who toppled Gadhafi and ultimately killed him.
‘The only condition Iran will retreat is if it truly feels a major threat in the near future, otherwise it will push ahead with its nuclear program to a point of no return,’ said Hossein Bastani, a former government official now based in France.
In the past month, the United Nations released a report documenting alleged excessive human-rights abuses by the regime; the U.S. disclosed an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate an Arab diplomat in Washington; and the International Atomic Energy Agency made its strongest statements yet about Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The U.S. and others are trying to heighten the sense of threat in Tehran. The U.S. is seeking to gather support for a possible boycott of Iran’s central bank, and the U.S. and Israel spoke of the possibility of a military strike. Meanwhile, the Obama administration has moved to boost the arsenals of its Persian Gulf allies to curtail Iran.
Some analysts aren’t convinced Tehran will submit.
‘There is very little likelihood that Iran is going to make any meaningful nuclear compromises,’ said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ‘There are no moderates in positions of authority in Tehran.’
Write to Farnaz Fassihi at farnaz.fassihi@wsj.com
Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204358004577032114158320558.html?KEYWORDS=iran