AFP – 5 May 2015 – Gulf oil exporters must reduce spending, including subsidies, and diversify their economies to cope with lower revenues caused by the sharp drop in crude prices, the International Monetary Fund said.
The wealthy monarchies, however, should “not react in a knee-jerk way to lower oil prices”, the IMF Middle East and Central Asia chief Masood Ahmed told AFP in an interview Monday.
They would be better off to “adjust gradually” using the large financial reserves they have accumulated during several years of bumper oil receipts, he said in Dubai.
But as oil prices have dropped lower than budgeted breakeven levels, “it is important that they gradually, but in a determined way… reduce their spending (and) consolidate their fiscal position,” Ahmed said.
Oil prices have shed half of their value since June 2014, and are expected to be lower than the breakeven point for Gulf countries in the next three to four years.
The Gulf Cooperation Council includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — economies all heavily dependent on energy revenues.
A combined budget surplus for 2014 of $76 billion (68.5 billion euros) is expected to turn into a deficit of $113 billion this year, the IMF said in its latest regional report.
“They need to act to reinforce their efforts to diversify their economies to become less dependent on oil,” said Ahmed, pointing out that many have already taken such measures.
“The UAE is more advanced in terms of diversification. The others also are in varying degrees trying to encourage private sector activity outside the oil area.”.