Foreign Affairs Columnist
Al-Seyassah (Kuwait), 3 Oct 2012 – Iran is engaged in an unprecedented crisis which might even be the most dangerous crisis that has engulfed this regime since the foundation of the Islamic state in 1979 to this day. This time, it might even lead to the fall of the regime due to a popular revolution, with the signs being visible in the horizon considering the drastic fall of Iran’s currency and, as a result, the crumbing of the country’s economy due to the West’s increasing sanctions over the regime’s nuclear dossier.
Although the state was able to quell the popular protests against the sham elections in June 2009, with the assistance of steel and fire, this time it will find itself powerless facing the explosive wrath of the people under back breaking pressures from economic sanctions.
Rial, Iran’s currency, lost 26% of its value in the last 48 hours, and nearly 80% during the past year. Inflation and unemployment continue to rise and the government’s delay in paying the salaries of thousands of its employees only adds to the problems.
The first signs of this situation was seen amongst the people during the public strikes yesterday in protest to the nosediving value of the rial, where Iran’s southern provinces were literally crippled, and moneychangers refused to sell foreign currency to customers.
It is clear that the speedy fall of the currency will lead to the middle class losing their money and the poor to become poorer. As a result, tendency for change at any cost increases and this will logically lead to a popular revolution which seeks change through any means, resting alone after state overthrow.
An issue that adds to all this is the rulers’ devious attempts and reasoning to explain the poor economic conditions and placing the blame on “global economic war” initiated against Iran due to its nuclear program. Their objective is to provoke national pride, yet it appears that these attempts by the regime will bear no fruit this time around.
In such conditions, one must expect the Iranian regime to have no other choice but to face the popular explosion soon. Then, not even an iron fist will be any good for it, as provoking national pride in order to bury popular protests will yield no results either, because the internal and external force behind these types of movements is the catastrophic economic conditions, not politics.